Former President John Tyler Predicts Lincoln’s Election in 1860, and is in Despair About the Consequences

“I see that the election is gone in Maine – although Douglas confidently calculated on carrying the State…You say nothing to me as to Pennsylvania. Can you hold out any hope in regard to it. I am almost in despair as to results and deeply meditate the future…My hope is that many here will come to their reason before it be too late, but it seems to me certain that Lincoln is to be elected in despite of all combinations. How stand things in N. Jersey – the increase of the R. vote in Maine augurs an omen all through the Free States.”

 

John Tyler was a Virginian who had pressed for admission of Texas to the Union when he was president, which heightened sectional tensions. Tyler watched with growing unease as sectional tensions mounted between the North and his beloved South during the 1850s. In the election of 1860, the political landscape was a patchwork of confusion. The Republicans had nominated the anti-slavery Abraham Lincoln for president; the Democrats in the North had selected Stephen A. Douglas, who was not sufficiently pro-slavery for the South, and who traveled the South urging union if Lincoln were elected; the Constitutional Union Party, just tinkered together off older men who were former Whigs and desperately wanted compromise but had no plan for it, and who selected John Bell; and the outright pro-slavery Southern Democrats who had nominated John C. Breckinridge. Tyler threw his support to Breckenridge, but worried about the country’s future if, as he foresaw, Lincoln was elected, and particularly feared the influence William Seward, whom he despised, would have on Lincoln.

In this letter to his eldest son, Robert, he discusses the election and his belief in the inevitability of Lincoln’s win. Autograph letter signed with free franked address leaf, three pages, Villa Margaret; September 14, 1860, to Robert. He starts by discussing his son John and grandson James, the latter of whom had obtained a major’s position in a Virginia militia company. At time that, many young Southerners were joining local militia units to be ready for action if the Black Republicans won the White House. “John sent me the express of Petersburg containing the appointment of his son James to a majority in a military formed in Southampton. If I can lay my hands on the paper I will enclose it. He says that the paper was sent to him … and he had appropriately answered it. He expresses a belief that you would be pleased to see it.”

The subject then turned to politics. Back then local and state election, including congressional elections, were widely held in September and October, separate from the presidential elections in November. So if these early elections went in any clear direction, they were highly predictive of how the states would vote for president. Here, Tyler predicts Lincoln’s election, and the consequences that may result, especially if William Seward was part of the new administration. “I see that the election is gone in Maine – although Douglas confidently calculated on carrying the State. Such were his declarations here. You say nothing to me as to Pennsylvania. Can you hold out any hope in regard to it. I am almost in despair as to results and deeply meditate the future. The Marylanders have struck upon the [use] in nominating Chief Justice Taney and [Justice Samuel] Nelson. I fear that they move too Late. My hope is that many here will come to their reason before it be too late, but it seems to me certain that Lincoln is to be elected in despite of all combinations. How stand things in N. Jersey – the increase of the R. vote in Maine augurs an omen all through the Free States.

“What does Seward mean by originating a war on the army and Navy: does he design to hold out inducements to the Wide Awakes [militant Lincoln supporters]. In his strategic game does he mean to open to the ambition of his organized bands generalships, colonelships, etc. and the 25,000,000 was bestowed on the army and navy, and there with his train bands have his will supreme in the execution of his movements on the constitution and the South. I suspect the man at every step and in every movement, a more arch and wily combination does not live. I can understand why if the army & navy be too large they should be reduced, but how get on without them entirely I cannot understand. Or why the militia should be called on to do duty in fortifications and the Indian frontier, or how to collect a revenue or claim the respect of the world without regular seamen, officers & men I cannot understand. If he makes the move depend upon it he seeks only to further his ambitious schemes – Do write to me of your opinion relative to Pennsylvania and N. Jersey.” The address panel addressed to Robert, with the former president’s free frank, is still present.

Tyler must have felt this letter quite prophetic with Lincoln’s win and Seward’s ascension to Secretary of State. Following the win, the former president met with Lincoln twice in early 1861. However, those meetings were not enough to sway Tyler’s loyalty and he was elected to the Confederate House of Representatives in November 1861, becoming the only president to serve the Confederacy. When he died the following year, Jefferson Davis held a grand, lavish funeral, even going so far as to drape a Confederate flag over Tyler’s coffin. To this day, Tyler remains the only president not to be buried beneath the American flag.